The Democrats will take back the house on Tuesday, November 6, 2018.

There is no blue wave however and it will be closer than many pundits are predicting.  I have predicted all 435 house races, with the help of Python, Pandas,  SciKit-learn, etc.

There are a handful of races that will tell the tale, but my model is predicting that it is going to be a difficult two years coming up for Donald J Trump.

Those of you looking closely have already noticed my overall prediction in the screen capture up there:

D:    221
R:    214
Name: party, dtype: int64

My model has the Democrats winning 221 of the 435 available seats.

This is a gain of 26 seats – which is a big gain but hardly a blue wave. In fact it is barely above the 218 they need to assume control of the house.

I am sure that the Republican party’s talking points will focus on the Democrats narrow margin of victory.   I am not sure that will matter to the 116th Congresses House Judiciary Committee…

The closest house races in my model:

TX 7 John Culberson R 49.57
OH 12 Troy Balderson R 49.74
OH 1 Steve Chabot R 50.68
CA 39 Gil Cisneros D 50.72
VA 7 Dave Brat R 50.87
NE 2 Don Bacon R 51.33
NJ 3 Andy Kim D 51.45
KY 6 Andy Barr R 51.66
KS 2 Paul Davis D 52.00
MI 8 Mike Bishop R 52.21

The Texas 7th, and the Ohio  1st and 12th could easily go either way. If I was doing a Cook Report kind of thing they would be toss-ups.  But calling a race a toss-up is the cowards way out!

There are another 10 races that I have the winner in the 50-something percentile.  I wouldn’t bet money on those either.  Therefore there are 20 races that I think are within a 5 point swing either way.

On the flip-side there are 380 races that are stone cold locks.   That leaves another 35 races that, were I to punk out, I would call leaning left or right.

percentage chance to win house race chart

As this chart shows my model has a lower confidence in more Republican predictions, and has more Democrat predictions near the 100% mark.  This means that I wouldn’t be totally surprised if the Democrats picked up a few more than 26 seats I am projecting.

Here is my models prediction for all 435 House Races:

state district candidate party incumbent percentage
AK 1 Don Young R TRUE 85.87
AL 1 Bradley Byrne R TRUE 98.43
AL 2 Martha Roby R TRUE 96.59
AL 3 Mike Rogers R TRUE 98.21
AL 4 Robert B. Aderholt R TRUE 98.58
AL 5 Mo Brooks R TRUE 98.29
AL 6 Gary Palmer R TRUE 98.49
AL 7 Terri A. Sewell D TRUE 98.77
AR 1 Rick Crawford R TRUE 98.32
AR 2 French Hill R TRUE 76.36
AR 3 Steve Womack R TRUE 98.39
AR 4 Bruce Westerman R TRUE 98.35
AZ 1 Tom O’Halleran D TRUE 95.03
AZ 2 Ann Kirkpatrick D FALSE 89.16
AZ 3 Raul Grijalva D TRUE 98.53
AZ 4 Paul A. Gosar R TRUE 98.42
AZ 5 Andy Biggs R TRUE 98.27
AZ 6 David Schweikert R TRUE 86.39
AZ 7 Ruben Gallego D TRUE 98.65
AZ 8 Debbie Lesko R TRUE 87.53
AZ 9 Greg Stanton D FALSE 97.73
CA 1 Doug LaMalfa R TRUE 90.77
CA 2 Jared Huffman D TRUE 98.62
CA 3 John Garamendi D TRUE 98.41
CA 4 Tom McClintock R TRUE 84.08
CA 5 Mike Thompson D TRUE 98.55
CA 6 Doris O. Matsui D TRUE 98.60
CA 7 Ami Bera D TRUE 97.15
CA 8 Paul Cook R TRUE 95.80
CA 9 Jerry McNerney D TRUE 98.38
CA 10 Josh Harder D FALSE 65.62
CA 11 Mark DeSaulnier D TRUE 98.59
CA 12 Nancy Pelosi D TRUE 98.69
CA 13 Barbara Lee D TRUE 98.67
CA 14 Jackie Speier D TRUE 98.63
CA 15 Eric Swalwell D TRUE 98.59
CA 16 Jim Costa D TRUE 98.12
CA 17 Ro Khanna D TRUE 98.61
CA 18 Anna G. Eshoo D TRUE 98.60
CA 19 Zoe Lofgren D TRUE 98.66
CA 20 Jimmy Panetta D TRUE 98.48
CA 21 David Valadao R TRUE 71.28
CA 22 Devin Nunes R TRUE 95.56
CA 23 Kevin McCarthy R TRUE 98.36
CA 24 Salud Carbajal D TRUE 96.97
CA 25 Katie Hill D FALSE 68.56
CA 26 Julia Brownley D TRUE 98.48
CA 27 Judy Chu D TRUE 98.58
CA 28 Adam Schiff D TRUE 98.62
CA 29 Tony Cárdenas D TRUE 98.62
CA 30 Brad Sherman D TRUE 98.59
CA 31 Pete Aguilar D TRUE 98.25
CA 32 Grace Napolitano D TRUE 98.63
CA 33 Ted Lieu D TRUE 98.56
CA 34 Jimmy Gomez D TRUE 98.59
CA 35 Norma Torres D TRUE 98.56
CA 36 Raul Ruiz D TRUE 98.25
CA 37 Karen Bass D TRUE 98.69
CA 38 Linda Sánchez D TRUE 98.55
CA 39 Gil Cisneros D FALSE 49.72
CA 40 Lucille Roybal-Allard D TRUE 98.48
CA 41 Mark Takano D TRUE 98.50
CA 42 Ken Calvert R TRUE 96.48
CA 43 Maxine Waters D TRUE 98.61
CA 44 Nanette Diaz Barragán D TRUE 98.56
CA 45 Katie Porter D FALSE 53.42
CA 46 J. Luis Correa D TRUE 98.55
CA 47 Alan Lowenthal D TRUE 98.51
CA 48 Harley Rouda D FALSE 62.77
CA 49 Mike Levin D FALSE 80.05
CA 50 Duncan D. Hunter R TRUE 91.38
CA 51 Juan Vargas D TRUE 98.57
CA 52 Scott Peters D TRUE 98.40
CA 53 Susan Davis D TRUE 98.52
CO 1 Diana DeGette D TRUE 98.54
CO 2 Joe Neguse D FALSE 98.36
CO 3 Scott Tipton R TRUE 72.81
CO 4 Ken Buck R TRUE 96.14
CO 5 Doug Lamborn R TRUE 96.52
CO 6 Jason Crow D FALSE 61.70
CO 7 Ed Perlmutter D TRUE 98.33
CT 1 John B. Larson D TRUE 98.50
CT 2 Joe Courtney D TRUE 98.44
CT 3 Rosa L. DeLauro D TRUE 98.53
CT 4 Jim Himes D TRUE 98.40
CT 5 Jahana Hayes D FALSE 96.56
DE 1 Lisa Blunt Rochester D TRUE 97.92
FL 1 Matt Gaetz R TRUE 98.52
FL 2 Neal Dunn R TRUE 98.45
FL 3 Ted Yoho R TRUE 97.14
FL 4 John Rutherford R TRUE 98.48
FL 5 Al Lawson D TRUE 98.52
FL 6 Michael Waltz R FALSE 81.78
FL 7 Stephanie Murphy D TRUE 95.78
FL 8 Bill Posey R TRUE 96.87
FL 9 Darren Soto D TRUE 98.40
FL 10 Val Demings D TRUE 98.77
FL 11 Daniel Webster R TRUE 98.39
FL 12 Gus M. Bilirakis R TRUE 97.12
FL 13 Charlie Crist D TRUE 98.32
FL 14 Kathy Castor D TRUE 98.77
FL 15 Ross Spano R FALSE 80.12
FL 16 Vern Buchanan R TRUE 88.03
FL 17 Greg Steube R FALSE 98.09
FL 18 Brian Mast R TRUE 90.13
FL 19 Francis Rooney R TRUE 97.81
FL 20 Alcee L. Hastings D TRUE 98.77
FL 21 Lois Frankel D TRUE 98.77
FL 22 Ted Deutch D TRUE 98.42
FL 23 Debbie Wasserman Schultz D TRUE 98.47
FL 24 Frederica Wilson D TRUE 98.77
FL 25 Mario Diaz-Balart R TRUE 79.57
FL 26 Carlos Curbelo R TRUE 54.10
FL 27 Donna Shalala D FALSE 93.78
GA 1 Buddy Carter R TRUE 98.18
GA 2 Sanford D. Bishop Jr. D TRUE 98.44
GA 3 A. Drew Ferguson R TRUE 98.48
GA 4 Hank Johnson D TRUE 98.57
GA 5 John Lewis D TRUE 98.77
GA 6 Karen C. Handel R TRUE 89.92
GA 7 Rob Woodall R TRUE 76.03
GA 8 Austin Scott R TRUE 98.77
GA 9 Doug Collins R TRUE 98.60
GA 10 Jody Hice R TRUE 98.50
GA 11 Barry Loudermilk R TRUE 98.45
GA 12 Rick Allen R TRUE 97.06
GA 13 David Scott D TRUE 98.55
GA 14 Tom Graves R TRUE 98.58
HI 1 Ed Case D FALSE 98.52
HI 2 Tulsi Gabbard D TRUE 98.60
IA 1 Abby Finkenauer D FALSE 81.11
IA 2 David Loebsack D TRUE 97.44
IA 3 Cindy Axne D FALSE 62.22
IA 4 Steve King R TRUE 88.44
ID 1 Russ Fulcher R FALSE 97.58
ID 2 Mike Simpson R TRUE 98.16
IL 1 Bobby L. Rush D TRUE 98.55
IL 2 Robin Kelly D TRUE 98.62
IL 3 Daniel Lipinski D TRUE 98.51
IL 4 Jesus “Chuy” Garcia D FALSE 98.65
IL 5 Mike Quigley D TRUE 98.57
IL 6 Peter J. Roskam R TRUE 54.59
IL 7 Danny K. Davis D TRUE 98.65
IL 8 Raja Krishnamoorthi D TRUE 98.48
IL 9 Jan Schakowsky D TRUE 98.56
IL 10 Bradley Schneider D TRUE 98.48
IL 11 Bill Foster D TRUE 98.50
IL 12 Mike Bost R TRUE 55.02
IL 13 Rodney Davis R TRUE 72.93
IL 14 Randy Hultgren R TRUE 74.77
IL 15 John Shimkus R TRUE 98.49
IL 16 Adam Kinzinger R TRUE 96.78
IL 17 Cheri Bustos D TRUE 98.45
IL 18 Darin LaHood R TRUE 98.48
IN 1 Peter Visclosky D TRUE 98.52
IN 2 Jackie Walorski R TRUE 89.95
IN 3 Jim Banks R TRUE 98.16
IN 4 Jim Baird R FALSE 97.79
IN 5 Susan W. Brooks R TRUE 97.44
IN 6 Greg Pence R FALSE 98.37
IN 7 André Carson D TRUE 98.52
IN 8 Larry Bucshon R TRUE 97.74
IN 9 Trey Hollingsworth R TRUE 86.09
KS 1 Roger Marshall R TRUE 98.53
KS 2 Paul Davis D FALSE 52.00
KS 3 Kevin Yoder R TRUE 74.89
KS 4 Ron Estes R TRUE 93.42
KY 1 James Comer R TRUE 98.49
KY 2 Brett S. Guthrie R TRUE 98.31
KY 3 John A. Yarmuth D TRUE 98.20
KY 4 Thomas Massie R TRUE 98.39
KY 5 Harold Rogers R TRUE 98.56
KY 6 Andy Barr R TRUE 51.66
LA 1 Steve Scalise R TRUE 98.51
LA 2 Cedric Richmond D TRUE 98.65
LA 3 Clay Higgins R TRUE 84.90
LA 4 Mike Johnson R TRUE 98.29
LA 5 Ralph Abraham R TRUE 98.42
LA 6 Garrett Graves R TRUE 98.45
MA 1 Richard E. Neal D TRUE 98.77
MA 2 James McGovern D TRUE 98.53
MA 3 Lori Trahan D FALSE 98.42
MA 4 Joseph P. Kennedy III D TRUE 98.77
MA 5 Katherine Clark D TRUE 98.58
MA 6 Seth Moulton D TRUE 98.50
MA 7 Ayanna Pressley D FALSE 98.77
MA 8 Stephen F. Lynch D TRUE 98.77
MA 9 William Keating D TRUE 98.00
MD 1 Andy Harris R TRUE 97.55
MD 2 C. A. Dutch Ruppersberger D TRUE 98.50
MD 3 John P. Sarbanes D TRUE 98.51
MD 4 Anthony Brown D TRUE 98.59
MD 5 Steny H. Hoyer D TRUE 98.54
MD 6 David Trone D FALSE 97.96
MD 7 Elijah Cummings D TRUE 98.58
MD 8 Jamie Raskin D TRUE 98.53
ME 1 Chellie Pingree D TRUE 98.25
ME 2 Bruce Poliquin R TRUE 55.14
MI 1 Jack Bergman R TRUE 84.70
MI 2 Bill Huizenga R TRUE 95.08
MI 3 Justin Amash R TRUE 96.81
MI 4 John Moolenaar R TRUE 98.02
MI 5 Daniel Kildee D TRUE 98.46
MI 6 Fred Upton R TRUE 84.18
MI 7 Tim Walberg R TRUE 69.73
MI 8 Mike Bishop R TRUE 52.21
MI 9 Andy Levin D FALSE 98.04
MI 10 Paul Mitchell R TRUE 98.22
MI 11 Haley Stevens D FALSE 66.38
MI 12 Debbie Dingell D TRUE 98.53
MI 13 Rashida Tlaib D FALSE 98.65
MI 14 Brenda Lawrence D TRUE 98.61
MN 1 Dan Feehan D FALSE 52.69
MN 2 Angie Craig D FALSE 71.52
MN 3 Dean Phillips D FALSE 61.38
MN 4 Betty McCollum D TRUE 98.51
MN 5 Ilhan Omar D FALSE 98.61
MN 6 Tom Emmer R TRUE 98.29
MN 7 Collin C. Peterson D TRUE 89.20
MN 8 Pete Stauber R FALSE 52.21
MO 1 William “Lacy” Clay Jr. D TRUE 98.58
MO 2 Ann Wagner R TRUE 90.59
MO 3 Blaine Luetkemeyer R TRUE 98.46
MO 4 Vicky Hartzler R TRUE 98.36
MO 5 Emanuel Cleaver D TRUE 98.43
MO 6 Sam Graves R TRUE 98.44
MO 7 Billy Long R TRUE 98.50
MO 8 Jason Smith R TRUE 98.50
MS 1 Trent Kelly R TRUE 98.34
MS 2 Bennie G. Thompson D TRUE 98.57
MS 3 Michael Guest R FALSE 98.01
MS 4 Steven Palazzo R TRUE 97.91
MT 1 Greg Gianforte R TRUE 73.74
NC 1 G.K. Butterfield D TRUE 98.55
NC 2 George Holding R TRUE 87.88
NC 3 Walter B. Jones R TRUE 98.77
NC 4 David Price D TRUE 98.57
NC 5 Virginia Foxx R TRUE 95.47
NC 6 Mark Walker R TRUE 89.09
NC 7 David Rouzer R TRUE 94.74
NC 8 Richard Hudson R TRUE 87.97
NC 9 Dan McCready D FALSE 54.97
NC 10 Patrick T. McHenry R TRUE 98.09
NC 11 Mark Meadows R TRUE 97.88
NC 12 Alma Adams D TRUE 98.54
NC 13 Ted Budd R TRUE 65.50
ND 1 Kelly Armstrong R FALSE 97.04
NE 1 Jeff Fortenberry R TRUE 98.32
NE 2 Don Bacon R TRUE 50.33
NE 3 Adrian Smith R TRUE 98.54
NH 1 Chris Pappas D FALSE 81.80
NH 2 Ann Kuster D TRUE 97.54
NJ 1 Donald Norcross D TRUE 98.50
NJ 2 Jeff Van Drew D FALSE 91.08
NJ 3 Andy Kim D FALSE 50.45
NJ 4 Chris Smith R TRUE 94.95
NJ 5 Josh Gottheimer D TRUE 97.60
NJ 6 Frank Pallone Jr. D TRUE 98.50
NJ 7 Tom Malinowski D FALSE 60.91
NJ 8 Albio Sires D TRUE 98.59
NJ 9 Bill Pascrell Jr. D TRUE 98.55
NJ 10 Donald Payne Jr. D TRUE 98.64
NJ 11 Mikie Sherrill D FALSE 74.46
NJ 12 Bonnie Watson Coleman D TRUE 98.54
NM 1 Debra A. Haaland D FALSE 97.63
NM 2 Yvette Herrell R FALSE 71.69
NM 3 Ben R. Lujan D TRUE 98.47
NV 1 Dina Titus D TRUE 98.51
NV 2 Mark Amodei R TRUE 97.30
NV 3 Susie Lee D FALSE 74.88
NV 4 Steven A. Horsford D FALSE 87.95
NY 1 Lee Zeldin R TRUE 88.64
NY 2 Pete King R TRUE 90.40
NY 3 Thomas Suozzi D TRUE 97.97
NY 4 Kathleen Rice D TRUE 98.44
NY 5 Gregory W. Meeks D TRUE 98.77
NY 6 Grace Meng D TRUE 98.59
NY 7 Nydia M. Velázquez D TRUE 98.68
NY 8 Hakeem Jeffries D TRUE 98.68
NY 9 Yvette D. Clarke D TRUE 98.64
NY 10 Jerrold Nadler D TRUE 98.61
NY 11 Daniel Donovan R TRUE 76.77
NY 12 Carolyn Maloney D TRUE 98.63
NY 13 Adriano Espaillat D TRUE 98.71
NY 14 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez D FALSE 98.61
NY 15 José E. Serrano D TRUE 98.73
NY 16 Eliot Engel D TRUE 98.77
NY 17 Nita Lowey D TRUE 98.57
NY 18 Sean Patrick Maloney D TRUE 97.52
NY 19 Antonio Delgado D FALSE 54.96
NY 20 Paul D. Tonko D TRUE 98.51
NY 21 Elise Stefanik R TRUE 94.29
NY 22 Anthony Brindisi D FALSE 67.06
NY 23 Tom Reed R TRUE 94.78
NY 24 John Katko R TRUE 72.23
NY 25 Joseph D. Morelle D FALSE 98.27
NY 26 Brian Higgins D TRUE 98.56
NY 27 Chris Collins R TRUE 90.24
OH 1 Steve Chabot R TRUE 49.08
OH 2 Brad Wenstrup R TRUE 95.27
OH 3 Joyce Beatty D TRUE 98.56
OH 4 Jim Jordan R TRUE 95.70
OH 5 Robert E. Latta R TRUE 98.10
OH 6 Bill Johnson R TRUE 98.50
OH 7 Bob Gibbs R TRUE 91.61
OH 8 Warren Davidson R TRUE 98.46
OH 9 Marcy Kaptur D TRUE 98.53
OH 10 Michael Turner R TRUE 92.75
OH 11 Marcia L. Fudge D TRUE 98.62
OH 12 Troy Balderson R TRUE 47.54
OH 13 Tim Ryan D TRUE 98.52
OH 14 David Joyce R TRUE 82.26
OH 15 Steve Stivers R TRUE 94.97
OH 16 Anthony Gonzalez R FALSE 95.30
OK 1 Kevin Hern R FALSE 98.04
OK 2 Markwayne Mullin R TRUE 98.48
OK 3 Frank Lucas R TRUE 98.55
OK 4 Tom Cole R TRUE 98.49
OK 5 Steve Russell R TRUE 85.97
OR 1 Suzanne Bonamici D TRUE 98.48
OR 2 Greg Walden R TRUE 98.23
OR 3 Earl Blumenauer D TRUE 98.63
OR 4 Peter DeFazio D TRUE 98.04
OR 5 Kurt Schrader D TRUE 98.29
PA 1 Brian Fitzpatrick R TRUE 67.95
PA 2 Brendan Boyle D TRUE 98.60
PA 3 Dwight Evans D TRUE 98.70
PA 4 Madeleine Dean D FALSE 98.30
PA 5 Mary Gay Scanlon D FALSE 98.46
PA 6 Chrissy Houlahan D FALSE 96.37
PA 7 Susan Wild D FALSE 92.25
PA 8 Matt Cartwright D TRUE 88.76
PA 9 Dan Meuser R FALSE 97.65
PA 10 Scott Perry R TRUE 80.77
PA 11 Lloyd Smucker R TRUE 94.80
PA 12 Tom Marino R TRUE 98.46
PA 13 John Joyce R FALSE 98.51
PA 14 Guy Reschenthaler R FALSE 96.91
PA 15 Glenn W. Thompson R TRUE 98.54
PA 16 Mike Kelly R TRUE 94.53
PA 17 Conor Lamb D TRUE 92.21
PA 18 Mike Doyle D TRUE 98.77
RI 1 David Cicilline D TRUE 98.54
RI 2 Jim Langevin D TRUE 98.50
SC 1 Katie Arrington R FALSE 87.07
SC 2 Joe Wilson R TRUE 97.68
SC 3 Jeff Duncan R TRUE 98.30
SC 4 William Timmons R FALSE 98.46
SC 5 Ralph Norman R TRUE 96.60
SC 6 James E. Clyburn D TRUE 98.55
SC 7 Tom Rice R TRUE 97.44
SD 1 Dusty Johnson R FALSE 96.82
TN 1 Phil Roe R TRUE 98.55
TN 2 Tim Burchett R FALSE 98.47
TN 3 Chuck Fleischmann R TRUE 98.35
TN 4 Scott DesJarlais R TRUE 97.61
TN 5 Jim Cooper D TRUE 98.52
TN 6 John Rose R FALSE 98.52
TN 7 Mark E. Green R FALSE 98.46
TN 8 David Kustoff R TRUE 98.50
TN 9 Steve Cohen D TRUE 98.58
TX 1 Louie Gohmert R TRUE 98.53
TX 2 Dan Crenshaw R FALSE 92.94
TX 3 Van Taylor R FALSE 97.65
TX 4 John Ratcliffe R TRUE 98.56
TX 5 Lance Gooden R FALSE 98.40
TX 6 Ron Wright R FALSE 95.41
TX 7 John Culberson R TRUE 46.07
TX 8 Kevin Brady R TRUE 98.57
TX 9 Al Green D TRUE 98.65
TX 10 Michael T. McCaul R TRUE 96.61
TX 11 K. Michael Conaway R TRUE 98.59
TX 12 Kay Granger R TRUE 98.48
TX 13 Mac Thornberry R TRUE 98.60
TX 14 Randy Weber R TRUE 97.10
TX 15 Vicente Gonzalez D TRUE 98.44
TX 16 Veronica Escobar D FALSE 98.53
TX 17 Bill Flores R TRUE 97.93
TX 18 Sheila Jackson Lee D TRUE 98.58
TX 19 Jodey Arrington R TRUE 98.58
TX 20 Joaquin Castro D TRUE 98.58
TX 21 Chip Roy R FALSE 84.13
TX 22 Pete Olson R TRUE 92.28
TX 23 Will Hurd R TRUE 62.37
TX 24 Kenny Marchant R TRUE 95.89
TX 25 Roger Williams R TRUE 94.77
TX 26 Michael Burgess R TRUE 98.39
TX 27 Michael Cloud R TRUE 98.01
TX 28 Henry Cuellar D TRUE 98.55
TX 29 Sylvia R. Garcia D FALSE 98.55
TX 30 Eddie Bernice Johnson D TRUE 98.66
TX 31 John Carter R TRUE 85.27
TX 32 Pete Sessions R TRUE 81.71
TX 33 Marc Veasey D TRUE 98.56
TX 34 Filemon Vela D TRUE 98.47
TX 35 Lloyd Doggett D TRUE 98.51
TX 36 Brian Babin R TRUE 98.52
UT 1 Rob Bishop R TRUE 98.42
UT 2 Chris Stewart R TRUE 96.59
UT 3 John R. Curtis R TRUE 98.46
UT 4 Mia Love R TRUE 74.72
VA 1 Robert J. Wittman R TRUE 97.24
VA 2 Scott Taylor R TRUE 73.49
VA 3 Robert C. Scott D TRUE 98.77
VA 4 A. Donald McEachin D TRUE 98.42
VA 5 Denver Riggleman R FALSE 56.63
VA 6 Ben Cline R FALSE 98.06
VA 7 Dave Brat R TRUE 49.87
VA 8 Don Beyer D TRUE 98.58
VA 9 Morgan Griffith R TRUE 97.72
VA 10 Jennifer Wexton D FALSE 77.82
VA 11 Gerald E. Connolly D TRUE 98.50
VT 1 Peter Welch D TRUE 98.59
WA 1 Suzan DelBene D TRUE 98.35
WA 2 Rick Larsen D TRUE 98.48
WA 3 Jaime Herrera Beutler R TRUE 90.16
WA 4 Dan Newhouse R TRUE 97.94
WA 5 Cathy McMorris Rodgers R TRUE 75.22
WA 6 Derek Kilmer D TRUE 98.48
WA 7 Pramila Jayapal D TRUE 98.64
WA 8 Kim Schrier D FALSE 55.32
WA 9 Adam Smith D TRUE 96.77
WA 10 Denny Heck D TRUE 98.44
WI 1 Bryan Steil R FALSE 67.75
WI 2 Mark Pocan D TRUE 98.77
WI 3 Ron Kind D TRUE 98.14
WI 4 Gwen Moore D TRUE 98.57
WI 5 F. James Sensenbrenner R TRUE 97.10
WI 6 Glenn Grothman R TRUE 79.38
WI 7 Sean P. Duffy R TRUE 97.58
WI 8 Mike Gallagher R TRUE 97.79
WV 1 David McKinley R TRUE 98.28
WV 2 Alex Mooney R TRUE 96.22
WV 3 Carol Miller R FALSE 86.53
WY 1 Liz Cheney R TRUE 98.49

7 Comments

SamIAm · October 30, 2018 at 5:28 pm

This is just more fake news. what makes you the predicter of elections? Libtards will go down soy boy.

    TripKendall · October 30, 2018 at 5:46 pm

    So, you’ve got 3 Fox News/Gab style slogans, one misspelled word, and grammatical issues vs. my hours and hours of time invested in not only this project but machine learning in general…

    That being said, to answer your one actual question:

    This post represents my best estimate of what will happen based on the best available data that I gathered, combined, collated, re-shaped, ran through custom functions, and spit back out without any prejudice on my end whatsoever.

    Unlike ( apparently ) you, I can separate political bias from data analysis.

    In other words, time will prove me right or wrong, but it won’t be because I can’t see anything without red or blue tinted glasses.

KcMo · October 30, 2018 at 5:57 pm

FiveThirtyEight gives your scenario a 2.2% chance of happening…

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

    TripKendall · October 30, 2018 at 6:02 pm

    Not bad considering their best guess only has a 2.6%

    My 2.2% is well within their actual box 🙂

      TripKendall · October 30, 2018 at 6:12 pm

      and it gives me 2.6 chance in the Deluxe Model!

cryp2onic · October 31, 2018 at 11:21 am

It looks like your model is not figuring in Donald Trumps negative approval rating. Incumbent presidential negative rating has been directly correlated to wave midterm elections.

    TripKendall · October 31, 2018 at 6:59 pm

    And Donald Trump’s approval rating is starting to tank right after I published. Doh!

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