Trip Kendall
Web Developer

Blog Post

2020 Presidential Election Odds

February 13, 2019 Politico, Tech, Words
2020 Presidential Election Odds

As of today there are 523 candidates who have filed to run for president. This includes 175 Democratic and 70 Republican candidates.

As of today my bots and agents have identified 27 people that have a  greater than 0.1% chance to win the presidency in 2020.  Not all of them have decided to run yet much less filed.

I published my first look at the 2020 election way back in the summer of last year.  I have refined my code and my process since and have a much more sustainable model going forward.

All of the potential candidates identified would run either as a Democrat or Republican assuming Bernie runs again and assuming he runs as a democrat.  Although the way the DNC screwed him last time I wouldn’t blame him if he didn’t.  But I digress…

Donald Trump 2020

Donald Trump has the best odds to win at the moment.  This is simply because it’s a horse race on the blue team with no fewer than 23 Democrats making this list.  These odds will obviously change going forward.  I will continue to update the odds or a regular basis right up until election day 2020.

When it gets down to a one on one race the Democratic candidate should have better odds then Trump.  Right now the generic ballot seems to indicate that there is a 43.9 % chance of a Republican president  and 56.1 % chance of a Democratic president in 2020.

One of the more interesting things I learned during this process is that Vegas, more than any of the polls, thinks that a different Republican has decent ( even if still very low ) odds of being the president in 2020.  Nikki Haley and John Kasich have better odds than a number of Democrats.   Vice President Mike Pence appears to be the most likely Republican 2020 President not named Donald Trump.

Without further ado:

 Donald Trump 36.25
 Kamala Harris 9
 Joe Biden 7.92
 Beto O’Rourke 6.8
 Bernie Sanders 6.5
 Elizabeth Warren 4.4
 Amy Klobuchar 3.5
 Mike Pence 3.3
 Cory Booker 3.1
 Tulsi Gabbard 2.75
 Sherrod Brown 2
 Nikki Haley 1.9
 Kirsten Gillibrand 1.75
 Michael Bloomberg 1.5
 Andrew Cuomo 1.35
 Julián Castro 1.33
 John Kasich 1.3
 Pete Buttigieg 1.23
 John Hickenlooper 1
 Jay Inslee 0.75
 Eric Holder 0.5
 Steve Bullock 0.5
 Jeff Merkley 0.45
 Andrew Yang 0.3
 Mitch Landrieu 0.25
 Marianne Williamson 0.22
 John Delaney 0.15

 

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3 Comments
  • Sam Gargnone 3:48 pm February 19, 2019 Reply

    Stupid libtard Donald J Trump is the only candidate on the Republicans!

    • TripKendall 4:00 pm February 19, 2019 Reply

      Well I may be stupid but I am certainly not a “libtard” lol 🙂

      However using that word (not to mention your uniformed comment in general) certainly exposes you for mouth breathing troglodyte that you are.

      I would also like to thank you for posting the phrase “Stupid libtard Donald J Trump” on this page. I am sure that *has* to be a fairly unique keyword phrase 🙂

      May your chains rest lightly upon you, and bless your heart.

  • […] over 20 hours into my rating system since last months version  ran.  Last month I was ranking the chances of 2020 potus candidates regardless of […]

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