Trip Kendall
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NFL 2019 Meta Mock Draft

March 5, 2019 Dev, Sports
NFL 2019 Meta Mock Draft

Now that the NFL Scouting Combine hype machine has come to a close, I thought it would be a good time to send out my scrapy agents to gather mock draft opinions from across the web.

I collected a variety of 2019 NFL mock draft lists from dozens of sources, well known and otherwise.  I ran this data through some Python magic to create a meta mock draft.

2019 NFL Meta Mock Draft

This mock draft is different from others that you might run across.  It’s not my opinion.  This mock draft is essentially the opinions of dozens of other people – a meta mock draft if you will.

These people range from NFL Insiders, to other programmers, to mainstream sports sites.   I weighted the mock drafts that have been published during and after the combine to have more weight than the ones published previously.

Weighting by timeliness makes a huge difference atop the draft. 

If I filter out the newest mocks and only process the older ones Nick Bosa is the number one pick, while my current model has the Arizona Cardinals taking Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray with the number one overall pick.

D.K. Metcalf and Montez Sweat also seem to be getting a post combine boost.  Apropos of nothing they both played for Mississippi based teams in college…

Ed Oliver and Greg Little were both once talked about as number one overall picks at various time.  They have now settled down into the middle of the first round.

In a defensive heavy draft class, devoid of top tier quarterback talent, there are still four QB’s I project to be drafted in the first round.

The projection that my model has the highest confidence in is that Dwayne Haskins will be drafted by the New York Football Giants with the 6th overall pick at 87.5% probability.

2019 First Round Meta Mock Draft

 1 Arizona Cardnials Kyler Murray QB
 2 San Francisco 49ers Nick Bosa Edge
 3 New York Jets Josh Allen Edge
 4 Oakland Raiders Quinnen Williams DT
 5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Jawaan Taylor OT
 6 New York Giants Dwayne Haskins QB
 7 Jacksonville Jaguars Jonah Williams OT
 8 Detroit Lions Rashan Gary Edge
 9 Buffalo Bills Ed Oliver DT
 10 Denver Broncos Drew Lock QB
 11 Cincinnati Bengals Devin White LB
 12 Green Bay Packers Montez Sweat Edge
 13 Miami Dolphins Daniel Jones QB
 14 Atlanta Falcons Christian Wilkins DL
 15 Washington Redskins D.K. Metcalf WR
 16 Carolina Panthers T.J. Hockenson TE
 17 Cleveland Browns Marquise Brown WR
 18 Minnesota Vikings Greg Little OT
 19 Tennessee Titans Greedy Williams CB
 20 Pittsburgh Steelers Devin Bush LB
 21 Seattle Seahawks Deionte Thompson S
 22 Baltimore Ravens A.J. Brown WR
 23 Houston Texans Byron Murphy CB
 24 Oakland Raiders (via Chicago) Clelin Ferrell EDGE
 25 Philadelphia Eagles Josh Jacobs RB
 26 Indianapolis Colts Jachai Polite EDGE
 27 Oakland Raiders (via Cowboys) Chauncey Gardner S
 28 Los Angeles Chargers Jerry Tillery DT
 29 Kansas City Chiefs Deandre Baker CB
 30 Green Bay Packers (via Saints) N’Keal Harry WR
 31 Los Angeles Rams Jaylon Ferguson DE
 32 New England Patriots Noah Fant TE

My model also shows a very high probability that if Tight End Noah Fant is still around at the end of the first round that the New England Patriots will snatch him up.  Amazingly he would be the 2nd Iowa Hawkeyes TE taken in the first round…

Even more amazing is that Iowa isn’t the only college team placing 2 receivers in the first round.  A.J Brown would join the aforementioned D.K. Metcalf as the 2nd Ole Miss wide receiver taken in round one.

As draft day approaches I will post an updated meta mock draft as new data is published.

I will include some trades in that mock – but interestingly it doesn’t seem to significantly change which teams pick which players.  It will mostly effect where a team picks said player.

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