Today I tweeted about how, although she is trending down, Elizabeth Warren was still a top tier candidate.  After I hit tweet, I started thinking, how do I know that’s true…

The Three Tiers of Democrats Running for the 2020 Nomination

Using the data I have been collecting on the potential democrat nominees for 2020, I decided to see if I could segment the candidates.

It turns out that it was much easier than I anticipated.  I sliced and diced it a few different ways but three different, distinct groups clustered together regardless of the method I used:

The 2 tiers of the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee

Tier One
Joe Biden, Kamala  Harris, and Bernie Sanders.

Though their positions relative to each other have changed, these candidates have maintained top three status throughout.

Biden has yet to declare.  If he doesn’t run that will shake things up quite a bit.  Until he decides one way or another this is a fluid situation.



Tier Two

Beto, Sen Warren, Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar

Each of these candidates are solidly in the second tier.  Chances are that the nominee comes from one of the seven people in the first two tiers.



Tier Three

The rest of the field…

It is a bit of a surprise to see Gillibrand, Castro, and Gabbard down here with the Jay Inslee’s of the world, but here they are.

There is still a long way to go before the nomination is handed out and maybe one of these candidates can kill it in the debates.  Tulsi Gabbard is a remarkable human being,  Buttigieg has a future,  and Andrew Yang qualified for the debates!

 


1 Comment

May Democratic Party 2020 Nominee Ratings – Trip Kendall · May 3, 2019 at 7:31 pm

[…] theory that there are three tiers of candidates seems to be holding although the second tier seems to be expanding.  Sen Harris is in danger of […]

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