If it’s a new month, it’s time for another edition of my Democratic Party 2020 nomination predictions/ratings/rankings.

This month the biggest shoe to drop was the Joe Biden announcement.  While he was widely expected to jump into the race his official announcement,  and the boost that he received from it, dominates this months ratings.

The announcement seems to have hurt and the most.  We’ll have to wait and see if Biden’s announcement bump holds or if he comes back to the pack a little.

Biden’s rating this month is the highest total percentage any candidate has garnered since I started these rankings back in January.  No candidate before this month amassed a quarter of the total – Biden’s 27.54% is fully 10% higher then second place Bernie Sanders.

Sen. is the candidate that is under performing the most. That is – she “should” be polling higher based on my own expected political performance statistic.

On the flip side is over-performing at a higher rate than any other announced candidate.  Announced being the keyword here – my numbers suggest that all bets are off if throws her hat in the ring…

May Democratic Party 2020 Nominee Rankings

 Rank Candidate Rating
 1 Joe Biden 27.54
 2 Bernie Sanders 17.34
 3 Kamala Harris 10.23
 4 Pete Buttigieg 9.25
 5 Elizabeth Warren 8.5
 6 Beto O’Rourke 6.5
 7 Cory Booker 3.25
 7 Amy Klobuchar 3.25
 7 Andrew Yang 3.25
 10 Tulsi Gabbard 2.25
 11 Kirsten Gillibrand 1.75
 12 Julián Castro 1.37
 13 John Delaney 1.02
 14 Jay Inslee 0.87
 15 John Hickenlooper 0.75
 16 Tim Ryan 0.69
 17 Seth Moulton 0.68
 18 John Delaney 0.55
 19 Steve Bullock 0.49
 20 Michael Bennet 0.47

My theory that there are three tiers of candidates seems to be holding although the second tier seems to be expanding.  Sen Harris is in danger of falling into the second tier after being firmly in the first tier back in March.

The newest declared candidates Moulton and Bennet do not seem to be creating any buzz or gaining any traction.

 


2 Comments

TripKendall · May 4, 2019 at 12:41 am

Eric Swalwell was less than .10

People in the News May 2019 – Trip Kendall · May 21, 2019 at 1:58 am

[…] If you have followed this blog you know that I am also tracking / predicting the potential Democratic 2020 nominee. […]

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