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Post Democratic Debates Candidate Rankings

June 29, 2019 Politico
Post Democratic Debates Candidate Rankings

I have collected news from the web since the first of the year.  Every single time, over the course of 180+ scrapes, Trump was always the number one term.

Until yesterday.  Yesterday the number one word mentioned in the news and on social media was “debate“…

Post Democratic Debate Candidate Ranking

This was a huge week for the democrats and a week that saw more of a shake up to the sorted order of the field than in quite some time.

Chart of the top ten democratic candidates post debate
Chart of the top ten democratic candidates post debate

A solid debate plus an appearance on Real Time has Tulsi Gabbard sitting in a solid seventh.  Tim Ryan cracks the post debate top ten.

Rank Name Rating
1 Joe Biden 0.91
2 Bernie Sanders 0.88
3 Elizabeth Warren 0.68
4.5 Pete Buttigieg 0.36
4.5 Beto Orourke 0.36
6 Kamala Harris 0.34
7 Tulsi Gabbard 0.31
8 Cory Booker 0.2
9 Julian Castro 0.16
10 Tim Ryan 0.14
11 Andrew Yang 0.07
12.5 Eric Swalwell 0.06
12.5 Amy Klobuchar 0.06
14.5 Jay Inslee 0.01
14.5 Marianne Williamson 0.01
16 Kirsten Gillibrand -0.01
17 Bill de Blasio -0.02
19 Steve Bullock -0.11
19 Michael Bennet -0.11
19 Seth Moulton -0.11
21.5 Mayne Messam -0.12
21.5 Mike Gravel -0.12

 

Post Debate Bump?

Percentage wise – the biggest bump from ?    Granted it’s because she started somewhere near zero, but still…

1.)
2.)

3.)

4.)

5.)

Julian Castro seemed to be the NBC spin winner, but is only the 3rd biggest mover in my system.  This still puts him in the Top 10 this week.

Negative numbers in my system mean a candidate does not have a statistically significant chance of winning.  Sorry Kirsten Gillibrand

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