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Odds to win the Democratic Primary

July 7, 2019 Politico, Words
Odds to win the Democratic Primary

The race for the Democratic party continues to change shape this week. My system says the odds that Joe Biden gets the nomination are half of what they were last month

In fact has fallen in my overnight ratings every single day since the debate.

 

 

The democratic candidates who were trending most positively this past week are:

1.) 58 % positive

2.) 55 % positive

3.) 53.5% positive

4.) 51.3 % positive

5.) 50.5 % positive

Harris also takes over the top spot in my model’s overall odds:

2020 Democratic Nominee Odds

Rank Name Twitter % Odds
1 Kamala Harris @SenKamalaHarris 16.81
2 Elizabeth Warren @SenWarren 16.16
3 Bernie Sanders @SenSanders 13.72
4 Joe Biden @JoeBiden 12.77
5 Pete Buttigieg @PeteButtigieg 11.56
6 Beto Orourke @BetoORourke 9.73
7 Tulsi Gabbard @TulsiGabbard 3.96
8 Cory Booker @CoryBooker 3.44
9 Julian Castro @JulianCastro 3.37
10 Andrew Yang @AndrewYang 3.19
11 Marianne Williamson @marwilliamson 1.53
12 Tim Ryan @RepTimRyan 1.36
13 Amy Klobuchar @amyklobuchar 0.74
14 Eric Swalwell @ericswalwell 0.06
15 Kirsten Gillibrand @SenGillibrand ‏ 0.04

It may be frightening to see Marianne Williamson up there at 11.  She got some sort of weird post debate bump in my system that is already fading.  My guess is that the debate was literally the first time allot of people Googled her and that artificially inflated her in the zeitgeist.

Kirsten Gillibrand is interesting. My system does not value her candidacy nearly as much as the mainstream media does.  My model has her solidly in the 3rd tier; behind the likes of outsiders Gabbard and Yang.

Everyone below Sen. Gillibrand ‏has negative odds in my model; meaning that they do not have a statistically relevant chance of winning the nomination at this point in time.

Jay Inslee -0.04
Bill de Blasio -0.6
Steve Bullock -0.6
Michael Bennet -0.8
Seth Moulton -1
Mayne Messam -1
Mike Gravel -1

Seth Moulton had a little wiggle after the debates, but he looks to be solidly in the pack of candidates that my model suggest should give it up.

Bill de Blasio got even more unpopular after the debates.  He already had the highest negatives of anyone in the field…

 

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