Trip Kendall
Web and App Developer

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2020 Election is a Tie with Wisconsin a Toss Up

November 14, 2019 Politico, Python
2020 Election is a Tie with Wisconsin a Toss Up

I have been working on creating a machine learning system to predict the results of the 2020 presidential election for some time now. I had been focused on identifying the Democratic candidate previously while toying with the general election.

Lately I have turned my focus to who will win the general – meaning whoever the democratic candidate is vs. Donald Trump.

The result that my system has the most confidence in, at this point in time, is essentially a tie.

270 Electoral Votes Need to win

Democratic Candidate: 263 Electoral Votes
Republican Candidate: 265 Electoral Votes


Wisconsin – too close to call, worth 10 Electoral Votes

As everyone is well aware, and history has proven, Trump does not have to win the popular vote to win the Presidency. In fact he can’t. Donald Trump never wins the popular vote in my system. Never.

But he doesn’t have to. Much like last time if he can pull out Florida ( I mean we elected DeSantis… ) and one of either Pennsylvania, Illinois, or Michigan – he can keep it close with it all coming down to Wisconsin.

If this scenario plays out it may come down to replacing the generic Democrat with the actual nomine. The Wisconsin polls are erratic at this point but basically Biden and Sanders beat Trump; but Trump beats Warren and Mayor Pete.

The second most popular senario my system predicts is the Democrats winning Florida, Pennsylvania, along with Wisconsin. If that plays out it would be much closer to a Democratic landslide than a toss up.

But if the supreme court has to step in to interpret The Badger State’s version of Hanging Chads, don’t be surprised…

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2 Comments
  • Ellie Kesselman 8:51 pm November 26, 2019 Reply

    It is I, Ellie here again.

    I remember hanging chads! In the years following, I was a poll worker for Broward County. I was in charge of the voting machines, daisy chaining them together, collecting the votes from the precinct at the end of the day, that sort of thing. I did it about 10 times over the course of four years. I learned that a lot of people who write about voting machine vulnerabilities don’t have any experience in actually working with the things. Yes, there are points of failure with electronic voting, but they aren’t the ones that get written up by the press, or even by computer science experts, e.g. Professor Gene Spofford at Purdue.

    I didn’t know that you had such a strong antipathy for our orange man in chief! I am a fan of his stated although sadly not well-implemented immigration policies.

    • TripKendall 8:55 pm November 26, 2019 Reply

      To be fair I have a strong antipathy for most of the people from both parties up there in D.C 🙂

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